Exactly 20 years ago, trainer John Shirreffs unexpectedly won the Kentucky Derby with 50-1 long shot Giacomo. Three years ago, Rich Strike — at 80-1 odds — won after beginning Derby Week outside of the field as the first alternate.
Neither horse was better than Baeza at that juncture of their careers.
If Baeza gets in the field — he is sitting at 21 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard — he could deliver Shirreffs’ second Kentucky Derby victory.
It wouldn’t be much of an upset at all. He’s that good.
Baeza finished second to Rodriguez in a mile allowance race at Santa Anita. He led Derby favorite Journalism before being overtaken down the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby.
“Everybody has a feeling they can win it, or else they wouldn’t be in it, right?” Shirreffs said. “Because he ran so well against the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, I think that’s a good indication of where he stands amongst the 3-year-olds.”
If it were a year ago, he would already be in the field.
Baeza’s second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby would have earned him enough qualifying points in every year prior to this one. But because there were only five entrants, points were reduced to 75% due to a rule that just changed this year.
Had a sixth horse entered the Santa Anita Derby, Baeza would have received the full 50 points for second place and would not have to sweat out the week waiting to see if there will be a scratch before 9 a.m. Friday.
Shirreffs was noncommittal on whether that rule needs to be repealed, calling those decisions “above his responsibilities.” But what he feels sure about is that Baeza is one of the 20 best 3-year-olds out there.
He didn’t always think that way. Shirreffs admitted he initially thought he’d wait to run Baeza in the Preakness Stakes and skip the Run for the Roses altogether. But after discussing the path with owners at C R K Stable and Grandview Equine, they decided it was worth trying to get into the Derby.
Two years ago with Skinner, Shirreffs suggested not even shipping the horse to Kentucky unless it was already in the field. He got in but developed a fever during the week and had to withdraw.
That would make Baeza Shirreffs’ sixth Derby horse if he makes the field. After Giacomo, who won on Shirreffs’ first appearance in the Run for the Roses, his best finish came in 2020 when Honor A. P. came in fourth.
Baeza was sired by McKinzie out of the Big Brown mare Puca, so Shirreffs doesn’t think distance will be a problem in the Derby.
“Everything in his pedigree screams a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half,” Shirreffs said. “So I would assume because of the way he works and the way he gallops, he does better the farther he goes.”
Baeza’s potential is good enough to make jockey Flavien Prat want to play the waiting game, too.
Prat could have been content to lock in on ride Neoequos, who was also an alternate, but got in the field when Built’s owners opted to run him in the Grade II Pat Day Mile undercard race Saturday. Prat will only ride Neoequos if Baeza does not get in.
Shirreffs begins what he describes as the awkward process of preparing to run while having to wait for another horse to have some misfortune and potentially have an owner or trainer have their dreams of running in the Derby crushed.
“It’s tough to come over here and not know you’re gonna run, and then to wait to see if somebody else has to scratch, which is not something you hope for, right?” Shirreffs said. “You want everybody to enjoy their Derby experience, so it’s very awkward, but because he has that opportunity it’d be a shame if something like that (scratch) happened and he wasn’t here to run.”
Baeza is here to run. He’s capable of winning. He just needs a chance to do so.
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.