With the United States presidential election a few hours away from conclusion, crypto investors are exercising caution, which is evident in the low volatility in the bitcoin options market.
Crypto exchange Bitfinex’s analysts reported that crypto investors have adopted a wait-and-see approach, expressing a lack of market confidence in BTC’s current price movements.
Investors Await Election Results
Crypto analysts generally expected heightened volatility leading up to the U.S. presidential election on November 5; however, investors seem hesitant to take action in the market. The front end of the options market faces significant pressure, and implied volatility for bitcoin options is in the low 40s.
Bitfinex explained that front-end volatility is the implied volatility of option contracts closest to their expiration dates. This often indicates the crypto market’s expectations for near-term price fluctuations.
“Another possible interpretation of current low front-end volatility ahead of election day is that it could signal a more profound concern for Bitcoin and altcoins as is shown in both BTCʼs current correction and the more significant corrections being seen in altcoins. Moreover, with options approval pending for Bitcoin spot ETFs, any shifts in sentiment surrounding these developments could further influence volatility and trading activity,” the exchange added.
While implied volatility remains suppressed and investors continue to apply caution, Bitfinex analysts expect the fluctuation structure to change between November 5 and 8. This prediction is fueled by expectations of significant price action within the week, although there is no certainty that the market will move in any particular direction.
If the market fails to experience the expected volatility, Bitfinex says a more substantial issue would likely be at play, and BTC may witness a much deeper correction.
Trump Still Leads on Polymarket
Multiple predictions of BTC at $100,000 by year-end may materialize in the coming weeks, depending on the election outcome. The general market consensus remains that a Republican victory by Donald Trump would be bullish for BTC, while a Democratic win by Kamala Harris could be bearish.
Meanwhile, data on the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket shows that the odds of Trump winning the election are 62.5%, while Harris’s is 37.6%. Data from CoinMarketCap showed BTC trading at $68,628 at the time of writing.
