Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan
No. 7 Notre Dame
2023 record: 10-3
Last season in 100 words
Marcus Freeman’s second season at Notre Dame went a lot better than the first even though the Irish improved by just one win. There wasn’t an 0-2 start or bad losses to Stanford or Marshall. A late loss to Ohio State in Week 5 stung, but it was a far different game than the 11-point loss in 2022.
The Irish also blew out nearly every opponent it beat. Notre Dame’s closest win was a 21-14 victory at Duke after the Ohio State game. Every other victory was by three scores or more and the season was capped off with a 40-8 blowout win over Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.
Why Notre Dame can make the playoff
The Fighting Irish bring back a bunch of talent, added a strong QB via the transfer portal for the second straight season and have a very manageable schedule. That’s a great recipe for a playoff appearance.
Notre Dame is, however, ineligible to get a first-round bye in the playoff. Since the top four seeds in the 12-team playoff go to conference champions, the Irish can only get a spot as an at-large team and the highest seed Notre Dame can be is No. 5.
With that bookkeeping aside, we’ll start with a defense that was excellent in 2023 and brings back eight starters. Notre Dame allowed fewer than 16 points per game a season ago and gave up just 4.4 yards per play. Just six teams had more than 300 yards against the Irish.
Nearly the entire defensive line returns, including defensive tackles Howard Cross and Rylie Mills. The secondary will be anchored by All-American Xavier Watts after he had 52 tackles and seven interceptions in 2023. Watts will team with Northwestern transfer Rod Heard at safety in what could be the best safety duo in college football.
The offensive line needs to replace three starters, including No. 5 overall draft pick Joe Alt, and the task might have gotten a bit harder during preseason practice. Charles Jagusah started for Alt in the Sun Bowl but suffered a torn pec earlier this month and is out for the season.
The line helped paved the way for Audric Estime to rush for over 1,300 yards a season ago and Estime needs to be replaced too. RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price figure to have larger roles in 2024 after they each averaged over five yards a carry last season.
Riley Leonard is Notre Dame’s latest transfer QB from the ACC after the Sam Hartman experience in 2023. Leonard will have a receiver group with serious potential in Mitchell Evans, Jordan Faison and Jayden Thomas. They all averaged over 14 yards a catch in 2023. Don’t sleep on the Notre Dame passing offense this season.
Key player
Leonard arrives from Duke after an injury-plagued 2023 season. He suffered an ankle injury near the end of the Blue Devils’ loss to Notre Dame last season and appeared in just two games in October. Over the seven games he played in 2023, his stats dropped precipitously from 2022.
Notre Dame is hoping that a fully healthy Leonard is much more like the quarterback he was in 2022. Two seasons ago, Leonard completed 64% of his passes for 2,967 yards and 20 TDs to just six interceptions. He also rushed for 699 yards and 13 TDs.
The matchup of Leonard and incoming offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock will be fascinating. Denbrock was the OC at LSU in 2023 as Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy and WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas were both first-round picks.
Biggest game
Notre Dame’s schedule lines up so well that the Irish could be 7-1 or even 8-0 before the Seminoles visit in November. The Irish are slight favorites ahead of the season opener at Texas A&M and will likely be favored in each of their next seven games.
After Florida State, the only other game that could plausibly trip Notre Dame up is a visit to USC in the final week of the season. A 10-2 season or better is very much in play and if that happens, Notre Dame will be hosting a first-round game in the College Football Playoff.
